Explaining the “September Surge” (And what job seekers need to be asking to avoid a post-hire layoff)
In the U.S., the most common timeframe to use PTO is in the summer, mostly because it’s a great travel season, kids are on break, and the weather for outdoor activities is just more favorable. It should be no surprise then that once kids go back to school, we tend to see an uptick in job postings. This is due, in part, to people simply plugging back into work-mode and saying, “OK, I’m back and available to find/hire/train that new person now. Let’s post the opening.” But it can also be due to the fact that many for-profit companies who have a fiscal year-end of Dec. 31st will need to hurry up and spend their ‘use it or lose it’ hiring budget before it expires. The combination of all of these factors has led to what’s now known as the “September Surge,” where more postings hit the boards and more interviews start lining up.
In uncertain markets, however, companies can over hire during this timeframe, leading to the need to correct after the fact – and you don’t want to be a part of the correction (aka layoffs). While it’s impossible to know exactly what might happen upon joining a new company, it’s good to do as much due diligence as you can before accepting an offer.
If you’re currently job hunting, here are a few questions you can ask to gain more clarity (good or bad) regarding the health of the role and organization you’re considering this September – and beyond. The trick here is to balance your need for insight with tact and professionalism, so as to not come off as distrustful or anxious.
OK, now for the list. Here are some questions (along with potential RED FLAG answers) that you can adapt depending on the stage of the interview and who you’re talking to. Your goal is to keep your tone curious and collaborative, not skeptical or apprehensive.
Funding & Resources (Especially important for start-ups.)
If it’s a startup or a rapidly growing company, these can be especially revealing:
“How is the company funded, and how much runway does leadership feel confident about?”
“How do you decide when to invest in new roles like this one?”
“Considering what you’ve experienced while joining the company, what gives you confidence in the company’s direction over the next year?”
RED FLAGS:
“We don’t really share that information.” (Could mean limited runway or that leadership is avoiding transparency.)
“We’re focused on growth now; sustainability will come later.” (This may suggest they’re burning cash quickly, with layoffs possible if funding doesn’t land.)
Role & Company Security (How important is this role to the company?)
These can help you get a sense of financial health without bluntly asking, “Are you about to have layoffs?”
“How has the team evolved over the past two years?” (Or “…since the pandemic?”)
“How has the company navigated recent changes in the market?”
“What are leadership’s main priorities for ensuring sustainable growth?”
RED FLAGS:
“The team has seen a lot of change, but that’s just normal in this industry.” (Translation: this could indicate high turnover, possible burnout, or instability. Also, if they can’t clearly explain why the role exists or how it ties to strategy, it may have been created hastily - or could be cut quickly.)
“We’re still figuring out what success looks like for this position.” (The role might not be well defined, making it easier to eliminate if budgets tighten.)
“We’re always growing!” or “The sky’s the limit!” without data to back it up. If they sound overly optimistic, with no anchor in revenue, funding, or actual performance data to back it up – run.)
Culture & Transparency
Healthy companies tend to be more candid:
“What’s employee turnover like on this team? Why have people stayed or left?”
“How does leadership communicate when there are big changes?”
“How does the company support employees during challenging times?”
RED FLAGS:
“Leadership keeps most decisions at the top, but they’ll share if/when it’s important.” (This could signal poor communication and that employees may have been blindsided by layoffs or sudden changes in the past.)
“Turnover is normal for companies like ours.” (This is deflection — they should know why people stay or leave.)
BONUS:
When closing the conversation (to keep it positive), you can ask a question like this to signal that you’re thinking about long-term fit (which employers like).
“I’m excited about the role, and I want to make sure I’m setting myself up to contribute long-term. From your perspective, what makes this role valuable to the company’s overall success?”
In Summary:
The RED FLAG characteristics to look out for in their responses include:
Vague or evasive answers (e.g., “We don’t really think about runway” or “That’s not something we share”).
Overly optimistic answers without details (e.g., “Don’t worry, growth is unlimited!”).
Recent hiring freezes, rescinded offers, or leadership changes that they gloss over.
Lack of clarity about what success looks like for this role you’re interviewing for.
On the flip side, here are a few GREEN FLAG alternatives that we’re hoping to hear:
Clear explanation of why the role exists and how it ties to revenue, cost savings, or strategy.
Specific examples of how the company has managed challenges in the market (e.g., cutting costs in smart ways, pivoting successfully).
Transparency around growth, funding, or stability (“We raised funding in Q2 which gives us X years of runway,” or “We’ve been profitable for 5 years.”).
Evidence of thoughtful leadership communication (“During market shifts, leadership have held weekly town halls to keep everyone updated.”).
One More Pre-Interview Tip:
Follow the money (or lack thereof). I highly recommend researching these companies’ financials, if available. Try searching for news on recent funding rounds (for startups), earnings reports, and news about layoffs or major leadership changes. You can also use tools like LinkedIn to review headcount trends (looking for major fluctuations) and Glassdoor to read reviews from current/former employees that might mention instability or larger internal issues.
Happy hunting!